Many had not imagined this to be the case again, yet Donald Trump defied the odds of the many legal cases stacked against him and the reputational damage from the events of 6 January 2021 to pull off a stunning comeback to the White House.
He evidently has a powerful bond with America’s working-class population, especially in the swing states that decided this election, especially Pennsylvania. Many of these same swing states had voted for Biden in 2020, yet it is clear that they felt the Democrats had let them down since then. Post-election analyses showed that Trump voters felt that inflation had caused their family severe hardship, with a majority of voters believing that the condition of the economy had worsened in the last four years.
Peacetime elections everywhere are typically decided by macroeconomic fundamentals, such as inflation, employment, the job market, and immigration. It is clear that Biden and the Democrats could not give a sufficiently good account of themselves on these issues. One moment may have summed up Trump’s ability to connect with working class voters and middle-class swing voters – when he cooked and served fries at a McDonald’s in front of the cameras. Despite his rough and unpredictable personality, he does not come across as a disconnected elitist untouched by the economic concerns of the average American voter – an issue that the Democrats by contrast may have to address going forward. The other turning point was likely the failed assassination attempt on him in July, which may have garnered him a significant sympathy vote.
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India-US relations
The bilateral relationship between Delhi and Washington is rooted not only in people to people ties, but $118 billion dollars’ worth of trade and robust military co-operation in the face of an assertive rising China. However, Trump is known for his inclination to use tariffs to extract trade concessions, which could hurt Indian exports at a time when India is aiming to become one of the world’s leading exporters. India’s automobile and pharmaceutical industries are bracing for potential US tariff hits.
Trump’s anti-immigration stance could also mean sharply reduced visas for Indian IT workers and other professionals. But the high level of defence cooperation between India and the US is likely to accelerate, although Trump may prioritise selling arms to India over transferring technology to Indian industry, potentially hampering India’s longstanding goal of indigenising its own defence industry.
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It is notable that Usha Vance, the wife of Vice President elect J.D. Vance is of Indian heritage, with her family hailing from Andhra Pradesh. What role, if any, this cultural connect is likely to play in the incoming administration’s attitude to India remains to be seen.
It is true that some Indians and Indian Americans cheered for his Democrat opponent, Kamala Harris, partly because of her mother’s Indian background. But she fell well short of the winning mark, despite what was by most accounts a promising debate performance against Trump.
Many Indians supportive of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP-led coalition government tilted in favour of Trump, who shared a strong bond with the Indian leader during his first term at the White House. Inevitably, many Indian Americans voted for Trump, as reflected in a study by the Carnegie Endowment which showed that some 32 per cent of the diaspora intended to vote for the Republican candidate. That is a substantial political shift from when the community used to strongly lean Democrat.
Trump’s comments in support of Hindu minorities under attack in Bangladesh may also have incentivised some Indian Americans to vote for him. According to estimates, Indian-origin women favoured Harris and men veered towards Trump. Overall, many Indian Americans have a less favourable view of the Republican Party because of its growing opposition to immigration and robust ties with evangelical Christian groups. It will be interesting to see if Trump can mitigate that issue, possibly by promoting some of his Indian American political champions, such as Vivek Ramaswamy, to his new Cabinet.
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US-UK relations
The impact of a Trump victory on trans-Atlantic relations is likely to be less dramatic than sections of the British media anticipate. The new Labour government did cause some controversy by allowing staffers to volunteer for the Harris campaign, much to Trump’s chagrin, however the fundamentals of the UK-US relationship remain robust.
It is anticipated that Trump will re-evaluate America’s long-standing commitment to sending military aid to Ukraine, however given that Russia continues to steadily advance and grind away at NATO defences in eastern Ukraine, it is likely that this conflict would have had to enter a new phase of negotiations soon in any case, despite the robust anti-Russia stance of the UK establishment.
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EU countries are also nervous about the prospect of Trump imposing tariffs on them, and while there may be underlying antipathy, even disapproval, of Trump in Europe among both elites and public, ignoring the lucrative trade with America is not an option. Therefore, diplomatic relations are likely to maintain a degree of continuity.
Perhaps the biggest difference between now and the first Trump presidency is that he has the clear mandate of the American people, having won both the Electoral College and the popular vote by a clear margin. That likely means he has more freedom to impose greater restrictions on immigration and visas, as well as tariffs on trade.
However, this more closed-off America simply reflects the direction much of the rest of the world is moving in, with growing scepticism over immigration and free trade globally. Managing a working relationship Trump will depend on the individual diplomatic and inter-personal skills of national leaders, such as Modi and Starmer. It has been done before and can be done again.
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Jeevan Vipinachandran is a UK-based writer and political analyst specialising in political conflict and counter-terrorism. With a Masters in Comparative Politics: Conflict Studies from the London School of Economics (LSE), his core interest is in international relations with a special focus on the rise of India and its impact on the world stage.