Rishi Sunak is gearing up for his first visit to India as UK Prime Minister next month for the G20 Leaders’ Summit of the world’s 20 biggest economies. With Britain and India in the final stages of negotiating a free trade deal, ties appear to be on the upswing again despite minor diplomatic hurdles.
Seventy-six years is roughly an average human lifetime in a developed country. That is the time which India has been independent of British rule for. It is poignant to note that when Britain left India, life expectancy was just 32 years and per capita income was only around Rs 265 a year. The turnaround since then has been remarkable, with India emerging as the world’s soon-to-be third largest economy and a vast middle class firing its rise as a great economic power.
Britain for its part has been trying harder in recent years to try and build a more robust partnership with India, cooperating with Indian security concerns at international forums, slowly allowing more market access to Indian companies. It is notable that India does appear to value the relationship with Britain, despite the murky colonial past, especially as there is now an Indian-origin Prime Minister of Britain.
India believes that Britain can contribute to its economic growth story, as much as India is an investor in the UK. The two countries also find partnership mutually beneficial, especially in a world that is in flux as noted by Indian High Commissioner to the UK in an *Op-Ed marking India’s Independence Day. Vikram Doraiswami says in the piece that “the foundation for ties that transcend our complex history exists: a living bridge of two million Indian origin Britons”. This is supplemented by the presence of 950 Indian investor firms in Britain. As he rightly points out, “corresponding numbers are anaemic even when compared with other OECD partners”, so there is a basis for a renewed and highly effective economic partnership.
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For strategic context, the UK identified India as a key partner and rising power well back in the 1990s, with then PM John Major being the Guest of Honour at the Republic Day parade in 1993. The British outreach to India accelerated under David Cameron, who visited India almost as soon as he became Prime Minister. A series of trade and defence cooperation deals with India were signed under Cameron. The trend of Modi addressing large crowds was first seen at Wembley Stadium in 2014 when Modi and Cameron held an event to welcome the new Indian PM.
With India’s economy booming since Modi took charge, prime ministerial visits to India have become almost routine, although interestingly Rishi Sunak is only going to visit now. It is notable that these high-level outreaches to India only began after the Conservatives took office in 2010 – it will be interesting to see if an incoming Labour government goes to the same level of effort to build a sustained and effective partnership with India.
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The emphasis from both sides is getting a free trade agreement (FTA) done, preferably by the end of 2023, with the 12th round of FTA talks beginning in Delhi on 16th August 2023. Both sides want greater access to each other’s markets. 19 out of 26 chapters in the negotiations between the two countries have been closed. A bilateral investment treaty is also being negotiated, making investment a separate area to the general trade agreement. India wants greater freedom of movement for IT and healthcare professionals to the UK, which would be beneficial for Britain given the growing strains on the NHS.
Likewise, the UK is interested in financial services such as banking, the legal and telecommunications sectors getting more barrier free market access. Bilateral trade between the two countries is now estimated at a bit over £20bn, demonstrating the importance that trade ties with New Delhi hold for London at a time when global trade is contracting in the aftermath of the triple macroeconomic shocks of Brexit, Covid and the Ukraine War.
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India and Britain also continue to accelerate their collaboration in areas outside of trade, such as international security. UK Security Minister Tom Tugendhat visited India for three days between August 11 and 14, to discuss the ongoing twin threats of extremism and corruption. He said while in Delhi “the living bridge between India and the UK reflects our deep and enduring friendship”. This showed understanding of the role that the diaspora plays in empowering the UK-India relationship runs deep in Britain’s key decision makers. He also announced during a meeting with Dr Jaishankar (India’s External Affairs Minister) a new £95,000 investment by Britain to tackle Khalistan extremism in the UK. This will complement the India-UK Joint Extremism Task Force. Of course, anti-India extremism in the UK, manifesting in the form of attacks on India’s High Commission among other unfortunate events have caused some diplomatic friction in the bilateral relationship. This renewed security outreach may be Britain’s way of reassuring India that Indian interests and concerns are taken seriously in London. Given the shared threat to the values and societies of both India and the UK from extremism, this is a logical move underlining the determination to face key challenges in the 21st century together.
Rishi Sunak’s upcoming visit to India for the G20 Leaders’ Summit – scheduled for September 9-10 in New Delhi – promises to be intrinsically historic and potentially transformational. With FTA negotiations progressing rapidly, now in their 12th round, the latent promise in the London-Delhi partnership is starting to be fulfilled, thanks to the diaspora’s efforts and the rapid economic growth in India.
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Jeevan Vipinachandran is a UK-based writer and political analyst specialising in political conflict and counter-terrorism. With a Masters in Comparative Politics: Conflict Studies from the London School of Economics (LSE), his core interest is in international relations with a special focus on the rise of India and its impact on the world stage.