There are potentially choppy waters ahead for an enhanced UK-India partnership. Against the spectre of the attack on India’s High Commission in London by Khalistani extremists on March 19, Prime Ministers Modi and Sunak have their work cut out to prevent relations between the two countries from being strained further. India is furious about a perceived British unwillingness to adequately protect Indian institutions in a professional and diplomatically appropriate manner.
The evening of the attack, when the Indian flag at India House was pulled down by extremists, the British Deputy High Commissioner was summoned at night in New Delhi for an explanation over the premises of the High Commission being so inadequately guarded, especially as it has been a target for extremist protesters in the past. Diplomatically this is quite a significant move, as diplomats are typically not summoned for a dressing down that late in the day.
Under Article 22 of the Vienna Convention of 1961, which governs international diplomatic relations, Britain is obliged as the country hosting an Embassy or High Commission premises, to protect the building and its staff. Failure to do so was technically a breach of Britain’s international treaty obligations.
Britain’s security services and legal establishment are aware of a rising terror threat, not only to India but also to the UK itself, as the recently published Shawcross report into Britain’s national counter-terrorism strategy PREVENT pointed out.
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Abuse of the UK’s asylum system by extremists
India has been critical of the perceived abuse of the UK asylum system by Khalistani extremists, where they claim asylum and then use the UK as a base for propaganda against India. Of course, recent events such as the high commission vandalism incident suggest that extremists in Britain are going beyond mere rhetoric to a more dangerous activism bordering on militancy.
Given India’s traumatic experience with terrorism, New Delhi naturally takes a dim view of such abuse. It is already increasing the pressure on Britain to curb such abuse of its asylum system. With the topics of asylum and immigration being controversial in the UK, Indian pressure on the UK on this issue may have an impact on UK policy in the near future.
The false narrative by an extremist minority that India (and increasingly Britain) is trying to keep Sikhs oppressed and downtrodden – a narrative easily undermined by the economic and political prominence of Sikhs in India – has the potential to cause more such high-profile incidents in future. The ostensible objective of such incidents may be to undermine the increased UK-India friendliness, especially in the aftermath of Rishi Sunak’s rise to power. Those behind efforts to disrupt UK-India relations through the Khalistani movement may also be trying to delay, if not prevent, a lucrative UK-India trade deal which could also increase the profile and numbers of Indians in the UK.
Modi-Sunak phone call: India takes a tougher stand
A perception had grown in India, from trends in Indian social media as well as government statements that Britain was deliberately turning a blind eye to extremists gathering around Indian diplomatic premises. However recent weeks have seen the UK become much more proactive in maintaining security around India’s diplomatic premises, if only under intense Indian diplomatic pressure.
The Indian government removed the security barricades from Britain’s High Commission in Delhi shortly after the vandalism of India’s High Commission premises, underlining the extent of displeasure in India at Britain’s tardiness in protecting India’s diplomatic premises in London. However, the diplomatic lobbying by India appears to have had an impact, because there was a significant police presence outside the Indian High Commission for the next round of extremist protests in the following week.
Furthermore, on April 18 news came through that the National Investigation Agency (NIA) has opened an investigation into last month’s attack on the Indian High Commission. This is a significant diplomatic breakthrough for India, as one of India’s prime counterterrorism agencies will now be allowed to conduct an investigation on British soil.
This move followed a telephone conversation between Rishi Sunak and Narendra Modi a few days prior to that, where Modi is said to have impressed upon PM Sunak the importance of clamping down on extremists. Quite possibly, it demonstrates that the UK is willing to co-operate with India and address Indian concerns at the highest levels of power.
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Trade talks still going strong
There is also a growing and concerted effort to get a UK-India trade deal over the line, which is an important aspect of growing bilateral strategic ties. The two countries recently completed an eighth round of negotiations towards a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), with the ninth round reportedly now underway.
As has been repeated often in the media and strategic circles, such a trade agreement would be deeply beneficial to the UK as its economy faces steep challenges in the aftermath of Brexit, Covid-19 and the global rebalancing away from China. Recently reports were published in the British media claiming that the India had stopped free trade negotiations with Britain as a means of protesting the intrusion onto its high commission premises. This was categorically refuted by the Indian government officially, although it has been touted as a potential strategic response to inaction by the UK government against anti-India extremism, in the Indian media.
However, it cannot be ruled out that more robust strategic options such as freezing trade talks and paring down diplomatic ties are nonetheless being considered by India, should the perceived British deficiencies in securing the safety and security of Indians in the UK persist.
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Robust security ties as China looms large
It is not all doom and gloom for UK-India relations. Ties in the security sphere are increasing, as evidenced by the visit of the British Chief of Defence Staff to India in recent weeks. Thus, underlining the growing security ties between the two countries, with tensions in the Indo-Pacific growing over China’s mounting assertiveness.
Between trade, security and people to people ties, there are many avenues for a sharp growth in diplomatic ties between the two powers. However, the thorny issue of growing anti-India extremism in Britain (which could yet threaten Britain itself) will need to be sorted out before ties can truly flourish to their full potential.
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Jeevan Vipinachandran is a UK-based writer and political analyst specialising in political conflict and counter-terrorism. With a Masters in Comparative Politics: Conflict Studies from the London School of Economics (LSE), his core interest is in international relations with a special focus on the rise of India and its impact on the world stage.
*Info: Vienna Convention; Shawcross Report